| Thursday, November 19, 2009 - New York Update - 2:34 PM EST Coming at you live from the Las Vegas Traders Expo. My presentation went very well this morning. We had a full house and I must say the level of questions from the audience geared towards Elliott Wave Analysis was at a higher level than I have ever seen. Thank you to all who attended. We are managing our remaining EURUSD short position from 1.4985 as we trade 1.4920. The pattern as showed below is looking more and more like a triangle 4, which means we have a final 5th wave push to new highs before we can expect a sizable correction in favor of the dollar. So for now, I am going to let the market take us out of this trade. I am moving stops to 1.4950 for the balance on the short EURUSD position. Back with you tomorrow. TG.
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| Tuesday, November 17, 2009 - New York Update- - 3:23 PM EST **POSITION UPDATE **
Short 4 units at an average price of 1.4982. With this push down in EURUSD, the potential still exists for a triangle 4 down on the 180 min chart with more push up in wave 5 to go. Below 1.4825 and this potential is eliminated. We are still above it so in light of the alternate count, I am going covering half of the position at 1.4865 and moving stops on the balance of 2 units to 1.5000. TG.
Monday, November 16, 2009 - New York Update- - 3:23 PM EST **POSITION UPDATE ** Target #1 0.9400 Met and Held. Closing last piece of AUDUSD long at 0.9375 for +155 pips. ** POSITION INITATION** SHORTING 2 units of EURUSD at MARKET - 1.4975 with ORDERS to SELL 1 unit at 1.4985 and 1 unit at 1.4995. Stops for all 4 units are 1.5025. Looking to add to this position. TG.
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| Monday, November 16, 2009 - New York Update- - 2:05 PM EST Chairman Bernanke addressed the New York Economic Club and indicated that headwinds could restrain growth in the US, and that monetary policy will stay accommodative for a significant period of time. The dollar rallied 70 pips against the Euro on risk aversion, but ultimately the dominant trend re-emerged as commodities and equities rallied sending the dollar to new lows on the session. We are still long the final piece of AUDUSD from 0.9220 and I am actively searching for a final exit spot. I have moved stops on the balance to 0.9320 locking in 100 pips on the final piece. I am still unclear where the ideal exit point is, and it's like the exit could formulate quickly. So if you are still in the trade with me, and would like to be notified of an exit quickly, please sign up for Twitter. I am able to notify you via text message when I exit the trade.
Just to keep you up to date, I was on CNBC's Fast Money this Friday talking about this on-going AUDUSD trade. You can see the interview by CLICKING HERE. Also, I am leaving for the Las Vegas Trader's Expo tomorrow night, so I will be updating you from the road. Good luck. TG.
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| Friday, November 13, 2009 - New York Update - 2:28 PM EST It's Friday the 13th and Hurricane Ida rolled into New York today . But that didn't stop up us from picking AUDUSD up from the lows for a decent trade to finish up the week. We put orders out to get long 2 units of AUDUSD at 0.9220 on Wednesday, triggered long on Thursday, and booked profits on 1 unit this morning on Twitter at 0.9285. I am holding onto the rest of the position as the fear of imminent inflation, though I believe it to be misguided, kept commodities and commodity currencies well -supported. Euro on the other hand is well offered against the dollar, but ultimately the general dollar disdain was enough to push EURUSD above yesterday's 1.4885 resistance level. USDCAD keeps bouncing from well-defined support levels as Canada is certainly the weakest of commodity-producing nations. The equity indices are holding onto modest gains for the session after a decent down day yesterday. A close above 1087 in the S&P would be the highest weakly close since 9/29/08. The hourly dollar index broke through the 75.20 level, which was supposed to hold in the wave 4 pullback to avoid entering the wave 2 territory. In light of fairly strong commodity markets, a positive equity close, and dollar overlap, I will remain long AUDUSD over the weekend with 0.9220 stops. Heading up to the NASDAQ in a little bit for a 5:40 PM EST appearance on CNBC's Fast Money. Enjoy the weekend. TG.
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| Friday, November 13th, 2009 - European Closing- 6:53 AM EST Booking half of our profits on 0.9220 long AUDUSD at 0.9285 and trailing a stop on the balance to entry price. EURUSD is acting very heavy into the 1.4885 wave 4 resistance mentioned below. Just a reminder, I will be on CNBC's Fast Money show at 5 PM EST today discussing the recent action in the dollar.-TG-
Thursday, November 12, 2009 - New York Closing Update - Filled on our AUDUSD bids today as the �risk trade� was hammered today. EURUSD seemed to the downside leader (down 0.94%)judging from the ferociousness of the move, but at the end of the day it was actually CAD that posted the biggest loss of 1.06% against the dollar. Commodity currencies were generally softer today, but to no surprise due to recent relative strength, AUDUSD did the best at a loss of 0.68% on the session.
Oil inventories were released today and came in higher than expected. And when combined with high risk aversion on the session, we would expect to see both S&P and Crude breaking significant support levels. But it just wasn't the case. Both crude oil and S&P held their respective support levels of $76.50 (see inset chart) and 1087. As much as I long for the day that we can participate in the coming upside US dollar short squeeze, I do not think today was the beginning. Crude oil held support at $76.50, as did Australia's major export, Copper, at around 297.30 . I remain long AUDUSD, but will do so cautiously, and will watch closely for signs in EURUSD, as well as USDCAD, that we are in the wrong trade. A break below 1.4800 in EURUSD or above 1.0600 in USDCAD will be a red flag. A break above 0.9275 and I will trail my stops to just below 0.9200. I am canceling EURGBP bids, but will keep an eye on this cross. Back tomorrow. TG.
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| Wednesday, November 11, 2009 - New York Closing Update - 5:19 PM EST We were on the right track with Sterling following BOE's inflation report last night, but unfortunately our bids were not hit so nothing working at this time. I am not willing to chase this EURGBP higher for two reasons. First, it destroys the attractive risk/rewards features of this trade, and second, I am not willing to chase ANYTHING in this market. Unbelievably, volatility, ranges, volumes, and certain credit spreads are now back to PRE-2007 credit crisis levels. The market has come become very complacent and comfortable in the very late stages of this astounding liquidity-fueled rally. In fact, traders and investors are becoming so comfortable that rather than trading growth prospects, some are bidding up the high-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate differential. Yes, you got it, they are actually putting the carry trade back on. Seems to me the wounds from the past 2 years are not even completely healed yet and some are returning to investing practices synonymous with the pre-credit crisis times. The governments have not even withdrawn the liquidity measures injected into the markets yet. And don't even get me started on gold. But, I will never fool myself by thinking that I am bigger than the market and try to fade this move - yet. I will stick to the trend of this market until such time that there are very, very good reasons to fight it, as defined by Elliott Wave. For now , as much as I think this move is on borrowed time, I will set my opinion aside and the participate in the fiesta.
Leaving my EURGBP bids in place and adding the Aussie into the bonanza. I will be bidding for 2 units of AUDUSD at 0.9220 with stops for now at 0.9142. If filled and Aussie shows favorable upside action, I will quick trail the stop up behind me. I will most likely update you via Twitter so if you have not signed up and would like to receive more timely updates to SOTD, I suggest you sign up here. On a media note, coming this Friday afternoon I will be appearing on CNBC's Fast Money discussing the FX market's recent developments. From there, we are leaving for Las Vegas next Tuesday for the Trader's Expo. If you are in the area, please stop by as Brian and I will both be making presentations. Click here for details. I will be updating SOTD from Vegas and can promise you the market will explode the day I leave - it almost always does. Back tomorrow. TG.
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| U>**ANNOUNCEMENTS**
TWITTER WOULD YOU LIKE TO BE NOTIFIED WHEN SOTD IS UPDATED? As of February 2009, I have begun posting on Twitter. Many of you have requested a way to be notified when I update the Strategy of the Day and I think Twitter is a great way to do that. For instance, if we need to make a quick move to take profits ahead of an intended target or cut a losing position because the market is not acting well and you are away from the FOREX.com platform, this is great way to be alerted via text message or email. To receive my updates, simply follow me on Twitter. If you do not yet have a Twitter account, take a few moments to create one. Once you are following me, you can go into your Twitter settings and choose to receive my ?tweets? via SMS messaging. This will allow you to receive update notices and other commentary from me right on your mobile phone. To set it up, go to your settings and select the devices tab. Enter your mobile number and check the box granting permission. Once you hit ?save? you are ready to get a daily dose of Todd Gordon right on your mobile device.
CNBC Interview Part of 1-of-2 with Dr Doug Hirschorn CNBC Part 1.
CNBC Interview Part of 2-of-2 with Dr Doug Hirschorn CNBC Part 2.
Las Vegas Traders Expo Nov 18-21 Brian Dolan, myself, and the rest of the FOREX.com team will be presenting at this year's Las Vegas Traders Expo. Details can be found here.
Topic: Trading Strategies of a Professional FX Trader
Date: Thursday, November 19th from 8:00-9:00am
Appearance by Todd Gordon, Senior Technical Strategist, FOREX.com
Description: In this session he will explain the underlying principles of his trading style which include Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Theory, Inter-market analysis, as well as trade entry and exit parameters. Prepare for a candid look into the daily trading life of a professional foreign exchange trader. A basic knowledge of Elliott Wave Theory is recommended.
DVD RELEASE We recorded a presentation I gave in Chicago back in January 2009 about the tools I use here in Strategy of the Day- FOREX Trading Using Fibonacci and Elliott Wave.
STRATEGY OF THE DAY - What's New in 2009 Strategy of the Day, or S.O.T.D., features in-depth analysis of the FOREX markets based on Elliott Wave and Fibonacci principles, Intermarket analysis, as well as more elementary technical analysis methodologies. SOTD is not just a traditional research piece, however. SOTD is actually a written game plan and trade journal of how a professional fund trader approaches the FOREX markets. Todd executes the trade ideas shared in SOTD in his G.C.A.M.(GAIN Capital Asset Management) account. All aspects of the trade are shared including the analysis, position sizing, entry, stop loss, and take profit levels. SOTD readers can follow Todd's trades as he puts his ideas to work in the market in real time, and with real dollars. SOTD is updated at least once daily on the FOREX.com platform.
POSITION SIZING To begin the new year, I am going to introduce some new features of SOTD. In the past I have shared with you all aspects of a trade idea including analysis, entry and exit levels. Going forward, I am going to include my position sizing for each trade idea as well. Essentially, the smallest position I trade will be referred to as a ?unit?. The maximum size I will put on in a single position is 50 units of a notional USD position. For an average sized position, I will have anywhere from 5 to 10 units at work. The more units in a position you can work with, the more flexibility you will have in entry and exit tactics. If you are only able to trade 1 or 2 units, I would adjust your account size to ensure you have the proper flexibility.
WAVE ANNOTATIONS Much like the original wave annotations introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the early 20th century, I am going to introduce a standardized labeling procedure custom to SOTD. This will allow you the reader to quickly identify the location and degree of my Elliott wave counts on the charts. As you can see on the chart below, I have listed 9 possible degrees of wave counts and the corresponding chart time frame that is likely to use a particular annotation. Now obviously you will not see just one degree of wave annotations on any chart. My purpose within this framework is to align a certain degree wave annotation with the primary price trend on a given chart. For example, if you see a blue underlined roman numeral labeling, the price move I am studying is probably best viewed on either a 30 or 45 min timeframe. Once you see black Arabic numeral labels, the move is probably best seen on either a 60 or 90 min chart.
Questions or comments?
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